Contenders at the ready:
The Wisconsin primary on Tuesday last week was notable both for prompting the withdrawal of Howard Dean from the presidential race, and for the boost it gave to John Edwards' campaign.
Though Kerry still took 40 per cent of delegates, making him the overall winner, Edwards' 34 per cent was a wake-up call to a party that had for too long been focusing on a battle between Kerry and Bush.
Kerry is beginning to look less like a winner, and more like a favoured son in the Democratic party. As his military record since Vietnam is brought into question, and his reputation begins to take a beating from rumoured scandals and accusations of dishonouring US soldiers, the race for the Democratic nomination is finally getting what it needs: a national campaign between two distinct candidates.
For Edwards, however, lack of funds and lack of time make his attempt to gain some momentum an uphill struggle. He's already asked Kerry to enter into a further four televised debates with him. As the spokesman for Kerry's campaign responded: "What's he going to say that he hasn't had the chance to say for the last 6 months?"
The White House certainly seems to believe that such a contest might be harmful to their own re-election campaign. With so much being made of John Kerry's military record, and his ability to fight a general election on national defence, the Bush campaign clearly believes it is time to change the nature of the contest. Apparently, Bush sat watching the events of September 11th, and "made up my mind at that moment that we were going to war." Clearly, this is a war President who doesn't need to stand tall in the Oval Office. His hunting ground is his Texas ranch. That's where this President thrives. And that's precisely the place where running a former combat soldier isn't going to help the Democratic party.
Despite the President's falling approval ratings, as long as Kerry continues to attack Bush on homeland security and the issue of war, he's only pushing himself further away from the major issues that will swing the conservative majority: education, healthcare, and most importantly the economy.
With 13 wins out of 15 states at time of going to press, John Kerry must surely remain the favourite to win the 2004 Democratic Primaries. However, he is still only in possession of 618 of the 2162 delegates needed to secure the nomination.
With Dean now officially withdrawn, and Edwards on 192, it is difficult to see them catching, but this race is certainly not over until the March 2nd 'Super Tuesday', when 26.7 per cent of the total delegates will be decided in ten state primaries, including the key states of New York and California.
All this makes it surprising that the Democratic leadership has been so quick to water down the potential race for the next few months. In the interim between Clark and Dean dropping out, Tom Daschle, the Senate Minority Leader, has announced an overarching Democratic policy on which to campaign in support of Kerry.
At its heart are tax increases for the wealthy to finance existing healthcare and education programmes, while maintaining fiscal responsibility. Edwards' response: to reconsider accepting the Vice-presidency after all.
For Medicare, the Democrats in Congress have lent unified support for allowing the government to negotiate directly with foreign companies on prescription drugs. Democrats believe this will quickly lower the cost of drugs for American consumers; Republicans counter that such measures will lead to government price controls that could result in less research. As for education, Democratic members of Congress are seeking more flexible standards, while providing a big funding increase: as much as $6bn or more annually on top of Bush's record-high spending on education. Bush supports a more modest increase and maintaining regulatory laws as they are.
As Daschle himself notes, "I cannot recall a time when there was more consensus on the policy direction we should take... Democrats believe Republicans are ceding the middle, and we are willing to take it."
By avoiding the intra-party debate and running for the centre, Democrats are only helping the Bush campaign, as this is the sort of race where he's had plenty of experience down on the ranch. It's difficult to drive to the middle of the road when your car takes up both lanes.
Born: June 10th 1953
Political Experience: Senator (North Carolina) 1998-present.
Has Chosen to accept public financing for his campaign.
Economy: Would like to repeal President Bush's tax cuts for families with incomes above $200,000. Wants to renegotiate NAFTA and other trade agreements. Voted to elevate China's trading status. Says trade deals should include labour and environmental protections. Has said he would save $2 trillion over 20 years.
Education: Opposes the use of taxpayer-financed school vouchers. Wants to double federal spending on public-school teacher training. Has called for increased funding for President Bush's No Child Left Behind Act. Would offer voluntary pre-school to one million children and scholarships to students willing to teach: one year of tuition at a public college in exchange for working ten hours a week.
Health care: Plans call for spending $53 billion a year on large health care programmes.
A family of four earning less than $60,000 would pay less than $370 a year for their kids' insurance; a lower income family of poor would pay about $110. Subsidies to help two-thirds of uninsured adults buy coverage. People aged 55 to 65 could buy into Medicare and unemployed workers who are not wealthy could continue coverage from their last job with a 70 per cent federal subsidy.
Swing Issues: Supports the death penalty. Supports abortion rights, although would have voted against partial birth abortions. Supports tougher clean air and water rules for farms. Would let gays serve openly in the military, but opposes same-sex marriages.
Born: December 11th 1943
Political Experience: Senator (Mass.) 1984-present, Lieutenant Governor (Mass.) 1983-1985, Democratic Nominee, House of Representatives, 1972.
Has forgone public financing for his campaign.
Economy: Would repeal President Bush's tax cuts, primarily for families with incomes above $200,000. Supports NAFTA and elevated trade status with China. Calls for $50 billion over an unspecified period for job creation and economic stimulus programmes. Would like to cut deficit in half by end of first term.
Education: $3.2 billion community service plan for high school students that would qualify them for the equivalent of their state's four-year public college tuition. Would add a tax credit to offset college tuition costs.
Health care: Planned spending on large health care programmes amounts to about $76 billion a year. Favours lowering costs of prescription drugs by allowing bulk purchasing of Medicare and would like unemployed to get 75 per cent tax credit to help pay for insurance. Would give tax credits to small businesses and their employees for health insurance. Plans for people aged 55 to 64 to buy into federal employees' health plan at "affordable price".
Swing Issues: Opposes death penalty, supports abortion rights, and vows to appoint only pro-choice judges to the Supreme Court, would steer $20 billion from oil and gas royalties to development of cleaner energy, while wanting the US to have independence from Middle East oil in 10 years. Opposes gay marriage; supports right to civil unions.
26th Feb 2004