Anti-Blair in heart, but not in head
Students in Oxford are both idealists and realists. In their hearts, they want to vote against Tony Blair and New Labour. But, in their heads, they would still rather have them in government than Michael Howard and the Conservatives. There is a similar ambiguity in the attitudes of voters generally. According to Populus polls for The Times, over three-fifths of the public is dissatisfied with the Blair Government, but over half still prefers it to a Tory one.
The balance is held by the third of voters who are dissatisfied with the Government but still prefer Labour to the Tories. This is the single most important poll question, not least because the proportion has beenlargely unchanged since the end of last year. Similarly, while Charles Kennedy will be cheered by taking more than 40 per cent of the Oxford student vote, his party still comes third in the ranking of which party people would like to win a majority.
The strong support for the Lib Dems – running at roughly double the party’s national poll ratings in the first half of the campaign- is not surprising. Many students at Oxford are highly critical of the Blair Government over the Iraq war, the introduction of tuition fees and libertarian issues. By contrast, among 18 to 24 year olds generally, Labour is still comfortably in the lead, according to recent Populus polls, with the Lib Dems in second place, just ahead of the Tories.
The opposition of Oxford students to Labour does not go to the extent of wanting Michael Howard and the Conservatives in power. Hence, Labour is given grudging backing to remain in office. Oxford students, like other voters, are responding to the Labour warning that a vote for the Lib Dems risks letting the Tories and Mr Howard in by the back door.
In that sense, the key statistic in the Oxford Student poll is the nearly two-fifths of Lib Dem supporters on the voting intention question who then switch behind Labour when pressed on which party they would like to win a majority after the election. The poll has two other interesting findings. First, contrary to widespread talk about a homogenous student vote, two-fifths of those questioned say they will be voting at home, rather than in Oxford.
This may not matter very much in the Oxford case since Oxford West and- Abingdon is already held by the Lib Dems. But it could mean that the impact of the student vote will be less in other university towns if many students vote at home rather than where they are studying. Second, the likely turnout among Oxford students – at around 62 per cent saying they will definitely vote – is higher than is likely among the public as a whole, and much higher than among young people generally.
The turnout of 18 to 24 year olds in 2001 was only around 40 per cent, roughly 20 percentage points less than even the record low of 59 per cent for the country as a whole. But turnout among students at Oxford would be expected to be higher than among the age group as a whole – for obvious reasons of being in higher education and living in a highly political environment.
28th Apr 2005